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Professor Pedantic 教授的考究學問
【學術專欄】
TPS的編輯教授在此歡迎關於學術文章的所有詢問，當然，其實他並沒有足夠的時間給你。他擁有終身教職的教授身份，也是著名的學術巨作作者。即便如此，他仍大方地接受你們的詢問。將關於學術方面的詢問寫在下方，你將獲得教授的親自指導，陶冶對學術的探索與啟發。
The professor awaits your query on academic writing, though in all honesty, he doesn’t have a lot of time for you. He is a tenured full professor and working on yet another magnificent academic tome. Even so, he has graciously consented to entertain your question. Submit it and prepare to be edified.
QUESTION: As a student of social science, I try to see how the thread of a society extends from the past into the future. The past and present are not difficult for me to write about, but I am nervous about making conclusions about the future. Are there any guidelines for applying social theories to future conduct of a society?
我讀的是社會科學，我想知道社會的脈絡如何從過去貫穿到未來。對我來說，討論過去與現在不難，但我不太敢推論未來。有沒有什麼方法，可以指引我們將社會理論應用到未來社會的行為模式？
The closest I come to being a social scientist is mixing it up in cocktail gatherings—where there always are some interesting observations to be made, though nothing of academic significance. Anyway, I will answer your question as a fellow scholar rather than as a colleague in the social sciences. The question really is about extrapolation, a big word that describes a process wherein known data or experience is projected into an unknown area. By so doing, you really are crossing over into conjecture. Therefore, only time will tell if what you infer will be true.
我唯一和社會學沾得上邊的，就是在雞尾酒會上興致勃勃地觀察人類行為，不過這些觀察沒有學術意義。總之，我只能以同為學術人士的觀點回答你的問題，而不是從社會科學同行的角度來說明。你問的其實是外推性的問題，也就是根據已知的數據或經驗，推斷未知的領域。這樣其實已經跨入推測的範圍，因此必須經過一段時間，才能知道你的推斷是否正確。
Future-looking is dangerous—that is, academically disputable—only if the base facts of a proposition are disputed. Consider the equation, 1+1=2. If we assume the decimal system still will be recognized in 2090, it is safe to infer that 1+1 equals 2 will retain its fundamental value. If on the other hand, it is suspected that 1+1 might equal 3 in future computations, inferring otherwise will invite disputes. Social questions are more complex, but the need for inferences to be firmly grounded in incontrovertible fact is the same in any scholarly study.
如果命題所根據的事實有所爭議，那麼對未來的預估就不可靠，也就是在學術上有爭議。以等式 1+1=2 來說，如果我們認為十進位法到 2090 年都還適用，就可以安全推斷屆時 1+1 還是會等於 2。然而，如果未來的計算法則裡 1+1 可能等於 3，做出其他的推論就會引來質疑。社會學的問題比較複雜，但所有學術研究都必須基於確鑿無疑的事實來推論，這點是不變的。
The safest approach to making deductions about the future in social science or any other malleable discipline is to get your facts straight. That includes thoroughly and completely researching the future into which you are going to project your conclusion. Fact and future cannot be accurately joined if future adaptations are not credited. Example: The architecture of future college campuses cannot be safely predicted, because all learning by then might be long distance. So: Know the given facts. Research the future. Extrapolate with confidence.
在社會科學或其他可詮釋的學科領域，要推論未來，最安全的做法就是確實了解事實，同時必須從徹底研究你想推論的未來。如果描述未來的變化時不能讓人信服，就無法從事實正確的推論未來。例如，由於未來大部分的學習可能都是遠距離學習，因此很難正確預測未來大學校園的建築風貌。所以記得，了解已知事實，徹底研究未來，才能有信心的作出推論。
The professor awaits your query on academic writing, though in all honesty, he doesn’t have a lot of time for you. He is a tenured full professor and working on yet another magnificent academic tome. Even so, he has graciously consented to entertain your question. Submit it and prepare to be edified.
QUESTION: As a student of social science, I try to see how the thread of a society extends from the past into the future. The past and present are not difficult for me to write about, but I am nervous about making conclusions about the future. Are there any guidelines for applying social theories to future conduct of a society?
我讀的是社會科學，我想知道社會的脈絡如何從過去貫穿到未來。對我來說，討論過去與現在不難，但我不太敢推論未來。有沒有什麼方法，可以指引我們將社會理論應用到未來社會的行為模式？
The closest I come to being a social scientist is mixing it up in cocktail gatherings—where there always are some interesting observations to be made, though nothing of academic significance. Anyway, I will answer your question as a fellow scholar rather than as a colleague in the social sciences. The question really is about extrapolation, a big word that describes a process wherein known data or experience is projected into an unknown area. By so doing, you really are crossing over into conjecture. Therefore, only time will tell if what you infer will be true.
我唯一和社會學沾得上邊的，就是在雞尾酒會上興致勃勃地觀察人類行為，不過這些觀察沒有學術意義。總之，我只能以同為學術人士的觀點回答你的問題，而不是從社會科學同行的角度來說明。你問的其實是外推性的問題，也就是根據已知的數據或經驗，推斷未知的領域。這樣其實已經跨入推測的範圍，因此必須經過一段時間，才能知道你的推斷是否正確。
Future-looking is dangerous—that is, academically disputable—only if the base facts of a proposition are disputed. Consider the equation, 1+1=2. If we assume the decimal system still will be recognized in 2090, it is safe to infer that 1+1 equals 2 will retain its fundamental value. If on the other hand, it is suspected that 1+1 might equal 3 in future computations, inferring otherwise will invite disputes. Social questions are more complex, but the need for inferences to be firmly grounded in incontrovertible fact is the same in any scholarly study.
如果命題所根據的事實有所爭議，那麼對未來的預估就不可靠，也就是在學術上有爭議。以等式 1+1=2 來說，如果我們認為十進位法到 2090 年都還適用，就可以安全推斷屆時 1+1 還是會等於 2。然而，如果未來的計算法則裡 1+1 可能等於 3，做出其他的推論就會引來質疑。社會學的問題比較複雜，但所有學術研究都必須基於確鑿無疑的事實來推論，這點是不變的。
The safest approach to making deductions about the future in social science or any other malleable discipline is to get your facts straight. That includes thoroughly and completely researching the future into which you are going to project your conclusion. Fact and future cannot be accurately joined if future adaptations are not credited. Example: The architecture of future college campuses cannot be safely predicted, because all learning by then might be long distance. So: Know the given facts. Research the future. Extrapolate with confidence.
在社會科學或其他可詮釋的學科領域，要推論未來，最安全的做法就是確實了解事實，同時必須從徹底研究你想推論的未來。如果描述未來的變化時不能讓人信服，就無法從事實正確的推論未來。例如，由於未來大部分的學習可能都是遠距離學習，因此很難正確預測未來大學校園的建築風貌。所以記得，了解已知事實，徹底研究未來，才能有信心的作出推論。
